China’s economy is positioned to grow at an estimated 4.8 per cent in 2026, according to recent forecasts, with stronger export performance cited as a key contributor to the outlook. The projection comes from research by Goldman Sachs, which expects Chinese real GDP growth to surpass broader consensus estimates for the year ahead and attributes this to a rebound in global trade activity and external demand. Goldmans Sachs’ forecasts form part of a wider set of economic projections for 2026 that highlight China among the faster growing major economies.

The export sector’s contribution to China’s GDP outlook is highlighted in reporting that notes a surge in shipments to non-traditional markets. Data published this month point to export momentum strengthening in regions such as Southeast Asia and Africa, compensating for softer demand from some established trading partners. This export performance is seen as central to supporting growth amid continued domestic economic adjustments.

China’s economic expansion in 2025 showed a mixed pattern in official and private data, with domestic consumption and investment remaining weak while industrial production and exports continued to provide support. December figures showed exports rebounded in late 2025 and helped to sustain output as other parts of the economy lost momentum. The external sector’s relative strength through the end of …