The psychodrama surrounding the Prime Minister’s leadership has now broken into a dramatic showdown between Starmer, Streeting, with Andy Burnham, Mayor of Greater Manchester, watching, powerless for now, on the political benches to see how the resignation goes down with MPs. The talk of Westminster on Thursday was whether a path will be made clear for Burnham to launch a bid. With Angela Rayner now cleared by HMRC of her tax problems, it also leaves the path clear for her to launch her own leadership bid as the soft-left candidate that offers an alternative to Streeting.

If Rayner enters the contest, it leaves Burnham little time or opportunity to get the Labour NEC to back his return and critically find a winnable seat. Some key supporters on the ‘soft-left’ may move their allegiance behind Rayner. But the problem for both is that a contest without Burnham will not be a proper leadership contest and will leave Labour badly divided and scarred with no real resolution.

Prominent figures supportive of Burnham include Heidi Alexander, transport secretary, and Labour veteran Ed Miliband, energy secretary. He was thought to be throwing his hat into the ring as the soft-left candidate to counter Streeting but Rayner’s clearance by HMRC makes this now much less likely. Sources have claimed that Alexander was “fully on the Andy train now”. Louise Haigh, the former transport secretary, has also come out as a Burnham backer. Furthermore, Yuan Yang, the MP for Earley & Woodley, who runs the Tribune group of soft-left MPs is supportive of the metro mayor taking on the Labour leadership. 

What is interesting is the amount of popular support – and recognition – across the country that Manchester mayor has among voters. Polling reveals that he is significantly ahead of his leadership rivals in public favourability. YouGov research demonstrates that not only is the metro mayor more popular than his Labour rivals but is also more liked than the leaders of the other main political parties in Westminster. As it stands 34 percent of voters have a favourable opinion of him, compared to 30 percent who have a negative view, giving him a net favourability of plus four. This puts him in a relatively strong position in contrast to Angela Rayner who has a net favourability of minus 35 and Wes Streeting who sits at minus 25. Overall, 27 percent of the public think Burnham would be a good PM in comparison to only 16 percent who think that of Starmer. By this metric Burnham also trumps Farage and Badenoch at 22 percent and Polanski at 15 percent.  

Streeting may have resigned but he has not yet triggered an election challenge. If a seat can be found for him, and the popular Manchester mayor gets into office, who stands to benefit?  

Burnham’s ties to lobbyists and pressure groups are less obvious than that of, for instance, Wes Streeting. However, there are some major movers and shakers that have donated to Burnham’s cause in the past and could still be influential in both his path to power and any premiership.  

One such group is Ecotricity. Ecotricity is a British green energy company founded in 1995 and is known as the world’s first green energy supplier. Ecotricity’s founder, Dale Vince, donated £20,000 to Burnham’s campaign to become leader of Labour in 2015. Following this in 2022, Burnham and Vince launched a task force to look at how green energy could be implemented in Greater Manchester and Liverpool City regions with a focus on how people in the North West can take ownership of green resources.  

At the time, Burnham said: “I’m delighted that Dale and the taskforce have agreed to take on this challenge and I’m really excited about what we’ll come up with.” The Labour Party later came under fire for accepting donations from Vince, who had given more than £1.4 million to Labour since 2014, due to his connections to Just Stop Oil.  

The major union backer of Burnham is Unite the Union, which is one of the largest and most influential trade unions in the United Kingdom and Ireland – representing over 1.2 million members. The union has historically been a significant Labour donor. Unite the Union donated a total of £40,000 to Burnham’s 2017 Greater Manchester mayoral campaign and gave him a contribution of £3,000 in 2015.   

In January this year, general secretary of Unite the Union, Sharon Graham, voiced some support for Burnham. She explained, “Look at the price of food. Look at energy bills. It’s not really about a person. It’s really about, whoever’s going to come in, what are they going to do, and at the moment Keir is not matching up to that.” With regards to Burnham she said, “I’ve spoken to Andy on many occasions. I know that Andy wants to do some things differently.” 

Policies that Unite the Union promote include wage increases, stronger workplace rights, stronger legal rights for unions, opposition to austerity driven cuts and privatisation, and support for protecting UK industry including manufacturing, transport, energy and construction. Other major campaigns run by the union include Get ME Home Safely, which advocates for safer working conditions for women, and Fair Pay, Fair Tips, which focused on ensuring hospitality workers get tips distributed fairly and transparently.

Today, the most recent developments suggest that Wes Streeting could resign as soon as tomorrow to trigger a leadership contest for Labour. This comes after Starmer took a firm stance that he will not be resigning, despite pressure from within his party.  What that means for Burnham is unclear unless he secures a Labour seat, which he is likely to be seeking via Bootle. As it stands, of the four constituencies Burnham is eyeing, Bootle is the only one that maintains a clear Labour lead over Reform. However, until that is secured, the King of the North must remain on the bench.