Why the markets aren’t writing Trump off yet

The Donald is still in with a chance, no matter what the pundits think, says Trey Barnes


The 2020 Covid election is far from over in the United States.

Trump can still win despite whatever the pundits say. He is down, but not out.

Yes, a poll from Wisconsin is alarming if you are a Trumpist. But, the race is all about turnout now. And if and where it happens. And with whom.

The reason is that in the key decider states the race is still winnable. So, take Wisconsin off the board.  I’ll admit it, that 17 points is a whopper no matter which outlet is polling.

Trump must win Florida and Ohio. Most likely he will. He very much needs to win Pennsylvania.  Maybe he will. Then it’s Arizona and Michigan.

Interestingly, markets are already realigning, as they do, in case of a Biden win. So, the economic reactions are being flattened in advance.

This one may take a while to be finalized. President Trump has been very clear on that. Amy Coney Barrett and the Supreme Court may be the decider.

Ok, that’s all well and good and what will be will be. What does it matter?

A Biden administration is not as friendly to the UK as a Trump administration.

There is a trade deal in play and it is more important than ever in these economic times with the UK’s relationship with Europe fragile that a US deal is done ASAP.  This was on track.  A Biden team will want to renegotiate it.  They will not let it be given the economic realities between the nations.  The US doesn’t have to.  They will renegotiate and not necessarily on better terms.

Biden’s stance towards China is too soft.  We all need to stand firm after Covid, and generally, hold China to account, and to continue a Western-led global approach.

Biden plays up his Irish roots.  How will that complicate the UK relationship?  Maybe it will, maybe it won’t. Factors totally unknown today may pay a big part in a post-Brexit, Covid world.

Trey Barnes is a contributor to The Mace. 

28th October 2020