“We are not in an era of changes, but in a change of era,” began Mario Walter Mauro – former Vice President of the European Parliament, former Italian Minister of Defence, and founder of Milan-based geopolitical strategic consultancy Meseuro – at the Provoke panel summit on ‘Redefining Public Affairs in a New Global Order’ at the PRovoke EMEA Summit 2025 in London earlier this year. He is a member of SEC Newgate’s Global Corporate and Geopolitical Advisory Council. The conversation, led by SEC Newgate’s UK public affairs director Allie Renison, focused on the complex interplay between economic, social, and political issues, and their impact on international relations. A main guiding theme was the connection between trade, geopolitics, and public affairs – and its impact on international relations and, consequently, on businesses. With a new trade deal (billed as the ‘largest trade deal in history’) between the US and EU signed in late July between Trump and Ursula von der Leyen on his Scottish golf course – and Trump also inviting Keir Starmer up to Trump Turnberry – we saw how shifts in international power dynamics, such as the US tariffs plan, the EU’s innovative commercial agreements with Asian partners, and the rise of autocracies, have resulted in a fundamental change of global era for public affairs. This has been marked by geopolitical tensions and crises that are undermining the effectiveness of the transatlantic relationship. Finland’s recent withdrawal from the Ottawa Treaty – the international agreement that bans the use, production, and transfer of anti-personnel landmines – and the Polish government’s decision to increase the size of its army by 500,000 troops are unprecedented moves since World War II and mark a clear shift in the geopolitical landscape. But if the EU and Europe seem so fragile and fragmented, why is President Trump so afraid of it? The answer is very simple: trade. Trade is one domain where the EU holds primary competence. For example, beyond aluminium, the EU meets a specific demand for high-quality steel, which is crucial for key US industries like aerospace and defence. Imposing tariffs on these materials may lead to strong opposition from influential US stakeholders. On the other hand, the EU is actively forging new commercial agreements with what Ursula von der Leyen calls like-minded partners – including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India. Significant among these partnerships are innovative free trade solutions focused on digital services and data markets, implemented with South Korea and Singapore, as well as Rapidus, the EU project aimed at expanding advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity between Europe and Japan by 2026. And then, there is China. The visit of the EU Commissioner for Trade, Maroš Šefčovič, to Beijing is another signal of the EU Commission’s commitment to engage with all key commercial players willing to find a solution to US commercially aggressive trade policies. However, despite ongoing trade disputes, the EU and US still remain close allies – a relationship that Mario Walter Mauro believes is “unlikely to change in the future”. Another relationship that is shifting is the one between the UK and the EU, which has undergone significant changes over the years. A relationship that was initially anchored on the principle of subsidiarity – a key pillar of the EPP’s political priorities and a fundamental counterbalance to the EU Commission’s hyper-regulatory approach – is now, after Brexit, at a critical juncture. While the UK-US relationship has remained relatively stable, the ties between London and Brussels have been strained. With this perspective, it was clear that an agreement on Brexit represented a major opportunity to restore the partnership between the two powers, particularly in the field of defence and security. The EU-UK trade deal – struck on 19 May in London – went some way to improving relations, especially in defence, with UK companies now able to compete for contracts in the EU, but there is still plenty of room for more bilateral cooperation. Prime Minister Starmer’s European ‘reset’ can be seen as an attempt to recalibrate the UK’s relationship with the EU. While ruling out rejoining a new customs union, the UK government has sent a strong signal that it wants closer ties with Brussels and a fresh approach to trading. The new post-Brexit youth visa scheme deal struck with the EU is seen as a major step towards closer ties with the bloc – although it has been criticised by those on the right as a form of ‘open borders’ through the back door. To de-escalate tensions, a new approach is needed – one that distances itself from the hyper-regulations that have characterised the EU Commission until now and is already starting to take root within the Union. An example of this shift is the recent Omnibus Package – an EU legislative proposal aimed at simplifying regulations on sustainability and corporate reporti...