Net zero is an open goal for Wales

Ben Burggraaf | 9th April 2026 | Comment

Wales has a unique opportunity to seize on the benefits of net zero (Photo by Carl Recine/Getty Images)

Despite being criticised by some as a costly endeavour, net zero presents a clear opportunity for Wales to benefit, writes Ben Burggraaf

The transition to net zero is often framed as a cost to society and communities. In reality, for Wales, it is one of the greatest economic opportunities of the 21^st century.

Wales begins this transition from a distinctive position. Its industrial heritage, energy-intensive sectors and manufacturing base mean that per capita emissions are still significantly higher than the UK average, despite the substantial reduction that Wales has seen in emissions since 1990, mainly achieved by the closing of industrial plants.

To meet the legally binding net zero targets set by the UK government, between 2020 and 2050, each person in the UK must reduce their emissions by around 125 tonnes of CO₂ per year. In Wales, this figure is on average 225 tonnes per person, almost double the UK requirement. The challenge is therefore significant for Wales but also presents extraordinary opportunities.

Using HM Treasury Green Book values and published decarbonisation pathways, one can quantify the social value of making this economic opportunity a reality. For the UK, the average annual social value is estimated at £93.7 billion (around 5% of 2020 GVA). For Wales, it is £7.6 billion per year – equivalent to roughly 11% of Wales’ 2020 GVA. The social value of industrial decarbonisation alone could contribute £2.7 billion annually (around 4% of the nation’s GVA).

Per person, the social value of …

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