Britain risks becoming dangerously reliant on imported liquefied natural gas unless the government moves swiftly to stabilise the fiscal regime for domestic oil and gas producers, the offshore energy industry has warned.

The alert comes in Offshore Energies UK’s Business Outlook Report 2026, published today, which sets out projections showing the UK could depend on imported LNG for more than a quarter of its gas supply by 2030 and nearly half by 2035. This figure is up from around 14% last year.

The report argues that regulatory and fiscal uncertainty, rather than shortage of resources, is driving the decline in domestic production. It calls on the government to replace the temporary Energy Profits Levy with a permanent Oil and Gas Price Mechanism, which OEUK says could unlock up to £50bn in additional investment and massively increase tax receipts over the next decade.

Oil and gas currently supply around 75% of the UK’s total energy needs, and the report projects they will still account for roughly a fifth of demand in 2050. North Sea gas also carries a lower carbon footprint than imported LNG, which reckons with the assumption that cutting domestic output automatically reduces emissions.

Under existing fiscal and regulatory conditions, the UK’s offshore energy sector is forecast to attract roughly £120bn in capital expenditure over the next ten years, including £86bn in …