After 20 years of war and $2 trillion spent by the US alone, the Taliban is now back in power. It’s not the first time foreign powers have faced defeat in Afghanistan—after a bloody ten-year occupation, the Afghan Mujahideen defeated the Soviets and forced their withdrawal in 1989. The British found out the hard way that Afghanistan’s geography and challenging mountainous terrain makes it virtually impossible to conquer—a lesson they learned not once, not twice, but three times during the Anglo-Afghan wars. A return to Taliban rule means the collapse of the post-2001 Afghan political order that has been shaped and propped up by Western armies and funding. Hundreds of thousands of Afghans have seen their lives improve these last two decades. They now face the threat of having basic human rights taken away from them. For its part, the US faces the prospect of the country potentially returning to its former role as a base of operations for terrorist organisations targeting itself and its allies.  Europeans will also be affected. Afghanistan’s instability will lead to increased migration flows, more economic competition in Central and South Asia, and a strategic weakening of the European continent. Since 2002, the EU has provided more than €4 billion in development aid to Afghanistan, making it the largest beneficiary of EU development assistance. This was Brussels’ effort to secure peace, stability and economic prosperity for the Afghan people. But after the West’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, the EU must choose to engage with the new leadership in a new, constructive way and in doing so reaffirm its position on the global stage.   A test to European unity The deterioration of human rights conditions for Afghans will inevitably lead to huge waves of migration to Europe, kicking off the kinds of social and political unrest last seen in the wake of the 2015 migration crisis. This crisis is still ingrained in Europe’s collective memory, and the political ramifications are still being felt today in countries like Italy, Spain and Hungary. For those Afghans who weren’t evacuated to the UK or the US by August 31, there is now no option but Europe. China will not accept these refugees, nor will Pakistan, having faced years of Afghan hostility. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are not an option either. Shia Iran similarly has no incentive to take Sunni Afghans, and Turkey, having absorbed almost four million Syrian refugees and asylum seekers, is now facing social unrest of its own amidst an economic downturn and high unemployment. The EU and its leaders once again face the inevitability of desperate Afghan refugees (alongside other similarly desperate migrants) landing on European shores. How it decides to handle this mass exodus will demonstrate the driving political ethos of the institution; it will also signal the role the EU wants to play within a fragile global ecosystem. The EU Council has agreed on a €600 million aid package to support Afghanistan’s neighbouring countries taking in refugees and migrants. Brussels is already drafting it, but it’s a move reminiscent of the 2016 EU-Turkey Deal and the EU should not be prepared to enter such a miserable arrangement.  The bloc relying on third countries is a desperate measure. It is not in line with the EU’s fundamental values, namely the protection of human rights and human dignity, and it does very little to advance and substantiate the EU’s aspirations for a global leadership role. When we see nations as developmentally disparate as Albania, North Macedonia and Kosovo all commit to taking in Afghan refugees, what excuse does the EU have in outsourcing its humanitarian responsibilities to third countries?  If the world’s most advanced and prosperous union cannot agree upon an allocation of migrants amongst its member states, then how can we expect anyone to look up to the EU as a global leader and embrace our values? Choosing to throw money at the problem signals a lack of political drive as well as the absence of a long-term vision for the EU’s strategic role in a multipolar world.   Rise to the challenge With America now out of Afghanistan, the EU once again has a huge opportunity to demonstrate its global ambitions and step up to make them a reality. In a world where the US no longer wishes to extend its military and political reach, the EU is faced with a choice: does it wish to be a regional player—dependent on the whims of others—or a global superpower equal to (or surpassing) the likes of the US and China? If the latter, then Afghanistan presents the EU with its greatest opportunity to do just that. It’s not just that the EU has the economic gravitas of some of the world’s largest economies—it also has the individual military capabilities of its NATO members and it is a known global convening power. But Europe’s increased involvement in Afghanistan doesn’t just have to do with its greater geopolitical ambitions, but also its own self-interest. Brussels ...