Farage spars with YouGov

Oliver Dean | 13th March 2026 | Politics, Polling
Robert Jenrick and Nigel Farage (Photo by Carl Court/Getty Images)
Robert Jenrick and Nigel Farage (Photo by Carl Court/Getty Images)

Nigel Farage has claimed that YouGov are trying to "suppress the true figures" when it comes to Reform's polling success.

Nigel Farage has accused one of Britain's leading pollsters of deliberately understating Reform UK's support. This is a charge which YouGov has flatly denied, insisting its methodology is more rigorous and detailed, not more hostile. In a letter to the company, the Reform leader alleged that "bizarre adjustments" were being used to "suppress the true figures" about his party's popularity. Across YouGov's last ten polls, he claimed, Reform averaged five points lower than surveys conducted by rival firms. The row erupted after YouGov's latest poll placed Reform just four points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent, which was sharply below the 30 per cent recorded by some competitors. YouGov, however, claims that this gap is a feature, not a flaw. The company overhauled its voting intention model during the 2024 general election campaign to capture tactical voting, which has become an increasingly significant factor in British elections. Rather than asking voters a single question about national voting intention, YouGov now asks two: how they would vote nationally, and how they would vote in their own constituency. The second answer contributes to the final figure. The difference is important. Internal data from five polls conducted between December and January shows that when asked how they would vote nationally, 29 per cent of respondents said Reform, which was a figure that was broadly consistent with other pollsters. When asked about their own constituency, that figure dropped to 26 per cent. The model was vindicated at the last election. YouGov's final call accurately predicted Reform would win 15 per cent of the vote; its previous, simpler method would have put the party on 20 per cent. Its seat-by-seat projection was the most accurate of any constituency-based poll, with 92 per cent of seats correctly called. Anthony Wells, YouGov's global head of politics and elections, said the company's post-election review found the new approach "substantially more accurate than more traditional methods." Raw data without modelling is published in full on the company's website. Farage, however, is unmoved. "Political polling plays a significant role in shaping public perception, particularly on social media," he wrote, demanding "a thorough explanation" of the discrepancy between YouGov's results and those of the wider industry. Political analyst Peter Kellner acknowledged that YouGov's figures were "out of line" with other pollsters, but said the differences were "explained by YouGov's innovations in measuring voting intention" and that "competition in polling methods is a good thing." Most pollsters agree on one point, however, which is that with rise of the Greens, Reform appear to have slightly dipped from their peak in the Autumn of 2025....

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