A little over three months ago Boris Johnson’s political obituary was being written. Now the war in Ukraine has bought him political time and potential favourability, with his approval ratings reaching levels not seen since the before the PartyGate scandals first erupted in December. But can Johnson recover in the long term from such a brutal political scandal?
Unlike other government departments, where politicians can adopt a submarine strategy – the modus operandi of both Theresa May and Gordon Brown before they became prime minister – you are completely exposed in Number 10. When a crisis hits, it hits like a tsunami.
While other scandals have dogged the Johnson government, PartyGate has been remarkable in the cut-through it achieved. A big part of what fuelled this was that huge numbers of people up and down the country could relate to the anger and disappointment it provoked, due to the unique sacrifices required by the pandemic. This was compounded by a failure to get all the bad news out at once, leading to a prolonged and damaging trail of stories.
The corrosive leaking destroyed trust within the building and, more importantly, with the public. Ukraine may provide some cover in the short term, but ultimately the Conservatives will have to confront the question of whether or not their brand has been damaged beyond repair.
This scandal is reminiscent of the phone hacking scandal of 2011 that arose when I was in government. Both scandals were persistent and eroded public trust in institutions that hold a duty to be honest with the public. There were a number of lessons learnt in government from the scandal; one was that governments can recover from scandals of this magnitude, it is just difficult.
How to build back
Johnson is both a Houdini and a Heineken politician. His rise to power is a direct reaction to archetypal politicians who roll out anodyne sound-bites. Johnson has consistently defied the laws of political gravity with the public. Incredibly, a significant part of the electorate has adored him and found him relatable even when he has given them almost every reason to do the opposite. Gaffe after gaffe, scandal after scandal, Johnson has defied the pundits and beaten the odds as voters have continued to turn up at the ballot box to vote him into office. It is an ability very few politicians have, and if No 10 were wise, they would use it to their advantage.
They need to find a way to “let Boris be Boris” and see if he can rediscover his emotional connection with the public. To some extent, the Ukraine crisis has given him a chance to do that – and it seems to be working. Johnson is often his best self when he is centre stage and in the limelight. Whether they admit it or not, many voters like his personality. When he shies away, this is associated with him being guilty. Any strategy to win back the public will have to involve letting Johnson “be himself” – it is one of the few things he has on his side, and the only element that can’t be replaced by anyone else.
The war in Ukraine is helping Johnson in some ways, as it initially placed much of the domestic agenda on hold. But with the potential future release of Sue Grey’s report and a slew of fines, Johnson will have to move swiftly to draw out a distinct policy programme.
Working in his advantage is that he holds a vision for the party to rally around in the form of levelling up. The Labour Party under Keir Starmer does not; instead, he has a shopping list of policies and Conservatives he disagrees with, but that is far from a vision. There is also the power of incumbency, a powerful tool at Johnson’s disposal. The drop in the polls was due to a Tory collapse, not a Labour revival, so there remains hope that a reinvigorated domestic policy push could transform his fortunes.
Winning back the trust of the public is, however, only part of the equation. Johnson needs to get the Tory party back on his side, after at least 15 Conservative MPs publicly called on the prime minister to resign.
No 10 should remember that if there’s one thing MPs are scared of, it’s losing their seat – particularly those in marginal, newly won constituencies. Johnson will have to show his party that he is the only leader who can secure the all-important “red wall” seats in the next election. With his approval ratings on the rise, the No 10 operation would be shrewd to release polling that shows he is uniquely positioned to deliver the red wall once again, as a way to get MPs back in favour.
Another thing is in the prime minister’s favour – the fact that the Conservatives have no natural leader in waiting. Similarly, the fact that the Tory party is a series of delicate coalitions – The European Research Group, Northern Research Group, Net Zero Scrutiny Group and Covid Recovery Group – could end up being Johnson’s saviour. Splits and divisions within the party, and those with their eyes on the crown spending too much time infighting, may end up keeping Johnson in power.
It is far from certain that Johnson is a goner. After all, if we’ve learnt one thing from his political career, it’s to never count him out.
