Over the weekend, St Peter’s in Rome has turned into something of a shrine to Pope Francis—and the Holy Father is not even dead. Frenzied media speculation over the death of a pontiff has led to the Vatican rumour-mill going into overdrive about the dangerously perilous state of the Holy Father's health. On Saturday, it was announced that Pope Francis had experienced a prolonged asthma-like respiratory crisis while hospitalised at Rome's Gemelli Hospital for double pneumonia. By the evening, the Vatican described his condition as critical. On Sunday morning, the Vatican reported that Pope Francis had enjoyed a "tranquil" night and had rested well. The Pope released a statement in which he expressed gratitude for those praying for him and stated, “I am confidently continuing my hospitalisation, carrying on with the necessary treatment.” His condition is so severe that Francis is now unlikely to resign as the successor to St Peter—something that will come as a relief to the more conservative factions and members of the College of Cardinals. It was feared that if he did—or still does—resign on health grounds, making him the sixth Pope in history to do so (the last being his predecessor, Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI), he would be unable to avoid influencing the choice of his successor, despite the strict rules of no contact with the outside world that are meant to govern a Conclave. In the film Conclave, starring Ralph Fiennes—which recently won Best Picture at the BAFTAs—based on Robert Harris’s novel, it is clear that intelligence and information from outside the Vatican walls influence proceedings inside, as warring factions within the 183 voting members of the College of Cardinals battle for supremacy over the Church’s direction. Harris spent time inside the Vatican speaking to Curia insiders, and no one has questioned the veracity of his research. Nothing less than the ripped and divided soul of the church is at stake at the next conclave. The truth is that, for all Francis’s well-choreographed popularity with younger Catholics at global events such as last year’s World Youth Day—a sort of spiritual youth Olympiad held in Lisbon—few popes in history have left the Church more divided. Many believe he has pursued a progressive and populist—some would say left-wing, Peronist—political agenda that has alienated millions of traditional and mainstream Catholics worldwide. Do not expect transparency from the Vatican Curia. Its press office often resembles the Soviet Politburo in its handling of information. Matters were not helped a few days ago when Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, president of the Italian Episcopal Conference (CEI) and himself a papabile contender, said in an Italian television interview: “The fact that the Pope had breakfast, read the newspapers and received people means that we are on the path to a full recovery, which we hope will happen soon.” Few believed him. His disingenuous comments only fuelled the growing frenzy of concern—and speculation—over the dire health of Pope Francis, 88, who was hospitalised on 14 February for bronchitis. He has been diagnosed with a polymicrobial respiratory infection, as well as bilateral pneumonia, and has also received blood transfusions. Bookmakers have been busy calculating the latest odds as pilgrims, priests and worshippers flock to St Peter’s. The frontrunners are:

Pietro Parolin – 4/1 Luis Antonio Tagle – 5/1 Fridolin Ambongo – 5/1 Peter Turkson – 6/1 Peter Erdő – 7/1 Angelo Scola – 8/1

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, from the Philippines, is known as the Asian Francis for his similarity to the current Pope. Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State, is a frontrunner as the Francis insider continuity candidate. He is considered a moderate who could heal divisions, though many conservatives will view him as more of the same. Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo, from the Democratic Republic of Congo, would be the first modern Black pope and the first from sub-Saharan Africa. This would be a timely move, considering that the number of Catholics in sub-Saharan Africa grew by 6,708 per cent in the twentieth century. He is the president of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar. Other contenders include Cardinal Zuppi, Archbishop of Bologna and Cardinal Wim Eijk, Archbishop of Utrecht. 

It has been a while since an Italian has stepped onto the balcony of St Peter's as the Holy Father in charge of the souls of over a billion Catholics, and an Italian might well be seen as a safe choice after a controversial regime that is likely to go down in history as having done nothing for Catholic unity.

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