IEA Brings Back Baseline Scenario as U.S. Presses for Reform

Mace | 19th August 2025 | Washington

The IEA will reintroduce a “current policies scenario” in its upcoming energy outlook to reflect existing policy pathways. Facing criticism from Energy Secretary Chris Wright—who has threatened U.S. withdrawal—the move aims to rein in aspirational forecasting while maintaining relevance amid political and methodological scrutiny.

The International Energy Agency will bring back the “current policies scenario” for the first time since 2019 in its upcoming World Energy Outlook later this year. The new model will reflect the likely trajectory of energy demand under existing measures without relying on speculative future policies . This marks a shift towards a more cautious posture amid growing US unease about overly optimistic energy transition forecasts . Energy Secretary Chris Wright has responded with defiance, stating that unless the IEA revises its modelling, the United States may withdraw from the agency. The threat is framed as a demand for reform rather than an immediate exit, although it underscores deep frustration with forecasts Wright dismisses as detached from market realities. This confrontation partly stems from IEA projections indicating that global oil demand will plateau before 2030. Wright has characterised such forecasts as “nonsensical”, rejecting the notion that oil consumption could falter th...

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