As the war in Iran continues, a number of energy bodies have warned of the disruption facing the sector, and the knock on effects that this will have on everyday consumers.

The International Energy Agency has described the conflict as creating “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” In its March Oil Market Report, the agency said crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz had plunged from around 20 million barrels per day to a trickle, with Gulf producers forced to cut total output by at least 10 mb/d as storage fills up.

On 11 March, IEA member countries unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, which marked the largest coordinated stock release in the agency’s 50-year history. The US alone committed 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But the agency cautioned that while the release provides a “significant and welcome buffer,” it “remains a stop-gap measure” absent a swift end to hostilities. 

However, the emergency response has done little to reassure markets. Brent crude briefly touched $119 per barrel on 19 March before easing to around $108, which whilst an improvement is still more than $40 above pre-war levels. Analysts at PVM noted bluntly that until Strait shipping resumes, policy interventions will have limited impact.

Tom Liles, senior vice president at Rystad Energy, said around 9 …