As the war in Iran continues, a number of energy bodies have warned of the disruption facing the sector, and the knock on effects that this will have on everyday consumers. The International Energy Agency has described the conflict as creating "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." In its March Oil Market Report, the agency said crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz had plunged from around 20 million barrels per day to a trickle, with Gulf producers forced to cut total output by at least 10 mb/d as storage fills up. On 11 March, IEA member countries unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, which marked the largest coordinated stock release in the agency's 50-year history. The US alone committed 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But the agency cautioned that while the release provides a "significant and welcome buffer," it "remains a stop-gap measure" absent a swift end to hostilities.  However, the emergency response has done little to reassure markets. Brent crude briefly touched $119 per barrel on 19 March before easing to around $108, which whilst an improvement is still more than $40 above pre-war levels. Analysts at PVM noted bluntly that until Strait shipping resumes, policy interventions will have limited impact. Tom Liles, senior vice president at Rystad Energy, said around 9 million barrels per day remain bottlenecked in the region. The IEA's release, spread over 120 days, amounts to just 15% of daily supply lost to the Strait closure. Bernstein analysts warned clients it will have limited impact on the trajectory of oil prices.  OPEC+ moved quickly at the outbreak of conflict, announcing on 1 March an increase in production quotas of 206,000 barrels per day for April. Industry analysts were sceptical, however. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said the increase was "a signal, not a solution," describing the group as walking a tightrope between responding to geopolitical risk and avoiding oversupply. Analysts at RBC and Barclays warned OPEC+ had little spare capacity outside Saudi Arabia to make any meaningful dent in the shortfall. A key structural problem compounds the challenge: even where spare capacity exists, it cannot reach global markets while the Strait remains effectively closed. Israel’s strike on the South Pars gas field made matters worse. QatarEnergy confirmed the attacks caused "sizeable fires and extensive further damage" across multiple LNG facilities. CEO Saad al-Kaabi said Iran's strikes knocked out 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity, with repair works expected to take three to five years and annual revenue losses estimated at $20 billion. China, South Korea, Italy and Belgium were identified as the markets most immediately affected. Wood Mackenzie's director of gas and LNG Tom Marzec-Manser said the attacks "fundamentally reshape the global LNG outlook," with supply disruption now likely to last longer than two months.  One of the most significant implications of the Hormuz crisis has been the collapse of maritime insurance. On 2 March, the International Group of P&I Clubs issued formal cancellation notices for war risk coverage associated with Hormuz transit.  Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, framed the broader stakes plainly. "We're moving from a supply chain problem to potentially a supply problem. There's a big difference. You fix supply chain problems quickly," he said. If upstream production and export capacity continue to be damaged, he warned, traditional pricing models and risk assumptions no longer hold. What is clear, therefore, is that if current trends continue, policy shifts will have little to no impact on energy prices. Trade bodies have voiced their concerns, but whether anything of significance can be achieved is a separate question entirely. All figures and statements current as of 20 March 2026....