As the Senedd elections draw nearer, exclusive research by Cavendish has shown that Labour are set to lose their hold in the Welsh Parliament, with Reform and Plaid Cymru set to make gains that will change the political make-up of Wales.

Labour have long enjoyed control of the Welsh Parliament, with the current seat distribution giving them 29 seats, with the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru in second place with 13 seats each.

Polling by Cavendish has revealed that the voting intention in Wales has shifted dramatically. When asked for who they would vote for in the Senedd elections, 37% said Plaid Cymru, 23% said Reform, and 13% said Green. Both the Conservatives and Labour sat on just 10% of the vote each.

With respect to what this means for seats, Plaid Cymru would, in this scenario, sweep to power with 44 seats, whilst Reform would trail with 23. The Greens would sit at 11, with Labour on 10 and the Conservatives on 7.

The shift is decisive for a variety of reasons. Firstly, and perhaps most importantly, it reflects a Labour government that is getting weaker. Polling already suggests that Labour are set to lose the Gorton and Denton by election, as well as hemorrhage seats in the local election. To not only lose control of the Senedd, but do so in a way that puts Labour in fourth place with respect to the total number of seats held signals a party that is on the decline.

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