As the Senedd elections draw nearer, exclusive research by Cavendish has shown that Labour are set to lose their hold in the Welsh Parliament, with Reform and Plaid Cymru set to make gains that will change the political make-up of Wales. Labour have long enjoyed control of the Welsh Parliament, with the current seat distribution giving them 29 seats, with the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru in second place with 13 seats each. Polling by Cavendish has revealed that the voting intention in Wales has shifted dramatically. When asked for who they would vote for in the Senedd elections, 37% said Plaid Cymru, 23% said Reform, and 13% said Green. Both the Conservatives and Labour sat on just 10% of the vote each. With respect to what this means for seats, Plaid Cymru would, in this scenario, sweep to power with 44 seats, whilst Reform would trail with 23. The Greens would sit at 11, with Labour on 10 and the Conservatives on 7. The shift is decisive for a variety of reasons. Firstly, and perhaps most importantly, it reflects a Labour government that is getting weaker. Polling already suggests that Labour are set to lose the Gorton and Denton by election, as well as hemorrhage seats in the local election. To not only lose control of the Senedd, but do so in a way that puts Labour in fourth place with respect to the total number of seats held signals a party that is on the decline. Secondly, if Cavendish’s polling is accurate and Reform enjoys a significant increase in seats, then it will put to bed the notion that Reform is a party for those who would typically vote Conservative, but are disillusioned. Too often, Reform is viewed as just a right-wing party. Making gains amongst traditional Labour voters would showcase that the idea of Reform is bigger than this. This would, of course, have significant knock on effects in the rest of Britain. It would showcase that the idea of a safe seat no longer exists, and that the decline of the traditional two party system is in full effect. This is important for public affairs professionals. It signals that a change of strategy is required if they are to effectively influence the government. No longer is a good relationship with central government sufficient. Local actors now possess significant influence over policy outcomes, and it is imperative that public affairs professionals recognise this. Whether this polling holds true until election day remains to be seen. However, in the event that this polling is accurate, businesses, public affairs professionals and trade bodies must prepare for what this means for the wider political scene in Britain. When asked for comment, a Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: "Something truly big is happening in Wales. After our historic by-election win in Caerphilly, it's clear that momentum is with Plaid Cymru to deliver the new leadership Wales needs. "Labour has given up on Wales, and Wales has given up on them in return - but Reform's politics of division isn't the answer either. Plaid Cymru is the only party rooted in Wales, focused on improving our NHS, public services, and helping families with the cost of living." "We're not taking anything for granted, but if people want new leadership and a government that's on Wales' side, the choice is clear - get involved and vote Plaid Cymru on 7 May 2026 to make this a reality."...