The Helm Review: Flop26

Dieter Helm | Issue 5 | Brussels, Comment, Diplomacy, International, Magazine, Politics

From the Archive

GLASGOW, SCOTLAND - OCTOBER 29: A general view of the Scottish Events Centre (SEC) and the Finnieston Crane at dusk as delegates from across the world begin to arrive for COP26 on October 29, 2021 in Glasgow, Scotland. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)

Mace hears from economist and climate expert Professor Dieter Helm on his assessment of Cop26

After 25 Cops, it might have been hoped that with yet one more heave the Glasgow Cop26 would have got the job done, put the world on a path to net zero and held out the prospect of limiting global warming to 2˚C. This is not what happened.

What matters for climate change is the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and that is a balance between natural sequestration and emissions. The fact is that carbon has been increasing in its concentration by about 2 parts per million (ppm) every year, year in and year out, since 1990. Stunningly, it went up 2ppm last year, despite the temporary large falls in emissions caused by the lockdowns in response to the coronavirus pandemic. It did so in the great financial crash of 2007–08, and this year is unlikely to be different.

Net zero isn’t enough

How could all the Cops result in not even a dent? The answer is that Cops are all about territorial carbon production emission targets: the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). They are not actually about carbon concentrations. Take the UK’s unilateral net zero target for 2050. It measures carbon emission in the UK, but ignores the carbon embedded in imports. Instead of focusing on the UK’s carbon footprint – its carbon consumption – it measures something that looks good as the economy de-industrialises. It conveniently ignores all the steel, petrochemicals, fertilisers, …

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