We are not so much in the Keir Starmer end game now as the “exit, stage left” moment of Downing Street departure. I visited Makerfield at the weekend, assessing the mood among voters along the scruffy high street of Ashfield-in-Makerfield, with its pawnbroker, kebab shops and tattoo parlours; in the giant retail park dominated by a huge Sainsbury’s on the road to Wigan; and the leafy pubs and car parks around Haydock Park’s smart race course.  It will come as little surprise to those who know Rupert Lowe that he set up Restore’s by-election army camp – some 900- 1000 canvassing troops from across the UK showed up in the sunshine on Saturday morning, and helpers even flew in from Hong Kong, Poland and Melbourne (the latter all-week) – in a series of tents in the Owners & Trainers car park. Standing by the tents, like a general’s chariot, was a new gun metal Land Rover Defender in full Restore livery with a navy flag on the back saying “Rupert Lowe for Prime Minister."

"Walking around Ashfield-in-Makerfield felt like being in Putney for the Varsity Boat Race. Restore’s supporters all decked out in smart dark blue sweatshirts and baseball caps, Reform in light teal blue"

When I asked a small band of Restore activists in The Bay Mare pub, near Haydock race course, at lunch how they were polling across the by-election seat, the chef de band, a builder volunteer, claimed “15 to 20 per cent”, adding: “I converted eight Restore members this morning and got them to take down their boards”. Wearing a Union Jack waistcoat, he could have been a pilot talking of Spitfire kills in 1940.  Other Restore canvassers claimed similar numbers, with one woman with red spiked hair – a former Labour activist - saying “15 per cent is in the bank, there’s going to be an upset I tell you come Friday.” This figure is in actually line with what Labour canvassing teams have been putting out to the press. How much of this is tactical polling bluff, aimed at splitting the right-wing vote in a Brexit voting seat, we shall see on Friday morning.  Mace’s Tip of the Week   Even the Daily Mail has forecast a bloody nose for Reform with bookies putting Restore getting from 5% to 9.99 of the vote at evens. My Haydock tip for Thursday’s six horse race  – based on our Mace informal poll - is to have a wager on the 4/1 odds on offer for Lowe to get 10% to 14.99%. That would be a broken nose.  Polling companies, meanwhile, have put Restore between 5-10%. Farage is popular around the area – which cleaned up at the local elections - but his “local lad” candidate Robert Kenyon hasn’t excelled under intense media scrutiny. Having spent time around Makerfield, talking to all camps, my prediction is that Restore will do better than the media expect, just as Reform used to consistently out-perform the media polls. Canvassers like to be optimistic, and loyal, especially after Lowe hosted a boozy party for Restore on Saturday night for volunteers at The Bay Mare, followed by an after-party at a local karaoke club.  Reform’s polling fall-off since the by-election was first announced, with Burnham now emerging as the front-runner, should not bother Farage too much as he has seen it all over the years. Insurgent parties, as Farage knows only too well, can go from zero to national party status after one or two strong election results.  Back in 2024, before the General Election, Reform had no MPs, no councillors and no money. Now it has eight MPs, 24 outright council majorities, 2356 councillors and millions in the bank and – as of June 11th, according to Poll Check Reform – UK has led for 408 consecutive days across 288 consecutive polls (319 polls total). Reform leads Labour by 8.9 points at 27.6% with Labour at 18.7% and the Conservatives on 18.7%. Restore do not even feature in these polls as a named party, falling under “Other” at just over 4%.  But if this percentage radically changes on Friday morning, we could see a bloody new “dark blue v light blue” war on the political right. Indeed, walking around Ashfield-in-Makerfield at the weekend felt a little like being in Putney for the Varsity Boat Race. Restore’s supporters all decked out in smart dark blue sweatshirts and baseball caps, Reform in light teal blue. Actually, other than as a nice visual metaphor, my Oxford V Cambridge boat race war analogy is wholly wrong.  What really divides the two right-wing leaders, for whom zero love is lost between them – we all know the Makerfield hostilities are deeply personal. They have very different political philosophies and influences. If the battle for Makerfield was back in the 17th century English Civil War, Farage would be an outspoken, swashbuckling, wine drinking, Cavalier commander, the first to offer his “stirrup cups”, whilst Lowe would be an unflinching Roundhead general. Few know that Lowe is a big fan of Oliver Cromwell.  The media will pounce on any Restore voting...