Follow the money can often be the best way of reading the political future. Keir Starmer’s week from hell will soon be drawing to a close and the bookies’ odds on the next Labour leader remain in flux. Within hours of Angela Rayner being cleared by HMRC over her tax affairs, she became the new favourite with William Hill to be the next Prime Minister.

On Thursday, Rayner headed the betting at 9/4, ahead of Andy Burnham at 3/1 and Ed Miliband at 5/1, with Wes Streeting now fourth in the market at 11/2. Attention is also turning to when Starmer might be replaced as Labour leader. Bookies are making July–September 2026 the strong favourite window at 4/6, with 2027 or later at 9/4, October–December 2026 at 5/1, and a departure as early as May–June 2026 rated an 8/1 shot.

In a statement today, Rayner claimed to have been “exonerated” of the accusation that she had “deliberately sought to avoid tax”. This long-running scandal, which forced her to step down as Deputy Prime Minister and Housing Secretary in September 2025 after underpaying stamp duty on her £800,000 flat in Hove, has been one of the main obstacles to her challenging Starmer for leadership.

“If Rayner decides to throw her hat in the ring, she has accumulated a powerful financial engine to back her up”

With that controversy now firmly in her past, the Red Queen can confidently enter the Game of Labour Thrones as a serious candidate. A YouGov poll earlier this week placed her favourability rating at minus 35 and Wes Streeting on minus 25 – both of whom were well behind Andy Burnham with a rating of plus 4. However, recent developments in the stamp duty case may improve Rayner’s standing with the public. If Rayner decides to throw her hat in the ring, she has accumulated a powerful financial engine to back her up. Reporting from earlier this year had already touched on the so-called ‘war chest’ Rayner had been building in anticipation of an opportune moment to launch a leadership bid.

To win, she’ll need a donor war chest as well as parliamentary support. In February, it was revealed by the Mail on Sunday that Rayner had reportedly raised £1 million to fund a potential leadership campaign. One ally said: “She has received more than a million in firm pledges and is ready to go,” as Rayner told supporters, “I’m not dead yet.” At the time, not everyone was convinced, as Starmer’s former political director, Luke Sullivan, said: “Frankly, I suspect if Angela had raised £1m, she would have decided to buy a villa in Ibiza and set up a nightclub. So I don’t believe there’s anything in this.” However, closer inspection of Rayner’s donation history by Mace reveals that she has been in receipt of sizable donations, including as recently as April 2026.

“Lord Waheed’s donations have landed Rayner in hot water in the past”

One major donor, who has appeared in the headlines over recent years, is Labour peer Lord Alli Waheed. Lord Waheed is a British entrepreneur, politician, and media tycoon. Lord Waheed’s donations have landed Rayner in hot water in the past, as she faced scrutiny after using his New York flat for a holiday. Despite this, the peer has historically donated £3,550 to Rayner for “work clothes” and £17,000 for staff support.

Trevor Chinn, who was covered by Mace this week for his connections to Wes Streeting, has also been financially supportive of Rayner. Chinn is a wealthy businessman, donor to the Labour Party, and political activist. He is active in pro-Israel causes and was awarded the Israeli Presidential Medal of Honour for service to the State of Israel in November 2024. In 2020, Chinn donated £25,000 to Rayner’s Deputy Leader campaign. Records from 2026 also show smaller donations from him for her staffing costs.

Furthermore, veteran banker Richard Greer has provided significant financial support for her staffing and campaign costs, including £5,000 in early 2026. Additionally, Ashley Mitchell, about whom there is no publicly available information, made a generous donation of £25,000 to the Office of Angela Rayner Limited in March this year.

One of Angela Rayner’s more glamorous donors is Fara Sassoon, a millionaire hotel and property investor who is a frequent presence in Mayfair and Monaco. The 60-year-old gave a generous donation of £10,000 to Rayner in November 2021. Since Gordon Brown’s premiership, her business has donated over £93,000 to Labour candidates and £174,000 in general election spending.

“We have not even considered the money she has made from speaking fees.”

A big contributor to Angela Rayner’s war chest is Refrigeration House Limited, an Oldham-based family business run by Paul Jordon, which has donated a total of £150,000 to Rayner in three separate £50,000 instalments between December 2025 and April 2026. Jordon stated he is “happy to support her office” because of her “real-world experience” and “contribution to public life.”

As we can see, Rayner’s purse is brimming with donations, and we have not even considered the money she has made from speaking fees. News today reveals Wes Streeting has resigned as Health Secretary, opening the door to a Labour leadership contest. Fuelled by the resolution of the HMRC scandal, Angela Rayner is, at least financially, in a prime position to mount a bid for premiership.