Nigel Farage has accused one of Britain’s leading pollsters of deliberately understating Reform UK’s support. This is a charge which YouGov has flatly denied, insisting its methodology is more rigorous and detailed, not more hostile.

In a letter to the company, the Reform leader alleged that “bizarre adjustments” were being used to “suppress the true figures” about his party’s popularity. Across YouGov’s last ten polls, he claimed, Reform averaged five points lower than surveys conducted by rival firms.

The row erupted after YouGov’s latest poll placed Reform just four points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent, which was sharply below the 30 per cent recorded by some competitors.

YouGov, however, claims that this gap is a feature, not a flaw. The company overhauled its voting intention model during the 2024 general election campaign to capture tactical voting, which has become an increasingly significant factor in British elections. Rather than asking voters a single question about national voting intention, YouGov now asks two: how they would vote nationally, and how they would vote in their own constituency. The second answer contributes to the final figure.

The difference is important. Internal data from five polls conducted between December and January shows that when asked how they would vote nationally, 29 per cent of respondents said Reform, which was a figure …