Brussels Diary: The EU’s Autumn of Stumbles

Konstantinos Bogdanos | 12th September 2025 | Brussels
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Brussels enters autumn beset by stalled reforms, budget shortfalls and vanishing credibility. From climate targets to defence procurement, the Commission’s priorities are collapsing under internal division and global pressure.

Late August 2025, and Brussels hums with restless ambition. The Berlaymont’s glass façade gleams under a rare sun, but inside, the European Commission’s grand plans for September 2025 to March 2026 already look bleak. Waiters at Place du Luxembourg cafés mutter about an EU in decline, their tips dwindling as bureaucrats tighten belts. The EU’s global clout is receding indeed, its vision more than it can chew. The city’s buzz masks a creeping paralysis. At Parc du Cinquantenaire, eco-zealots wave banners, but the Commission’s green agenda is a farce. The 2040 emissions target is a hollow promise when 2030’s 55% cuts crumble. Hungary and Poland deny compliance. Renewables stall at 32% of energy use, miles from the 42% goal, and the 2025 budget guts climate funds by 12%. Makes sense. This green dogma chokes growth: energy costs rose 15% since 2020, crippling SMEs. Europe’s competitiveness, lagging 5% behind the U.S., suffocates under carbon taxes that deliver nothing but rhetoric. In a smoky Schuman bar, defence officials enjoy whiskey cocktails, grilling ReArm Europe’s €800 billion plan. Drones and cyber defences sound fine, but Andrius Kubilius, the EU’s first Defence Commissioner, struggles to herd 27 member states into unified procurement. €200 billion earmarked for 2026 sinks in bureaucratic quicksand. Third parties like Turkey benefit more than member states. With Ukraine’s war grinding on, the Commission’s sluggishness leaves Europe exposed. A Lithuanian aide exclaims, “we’re arming for yesterday’s war”. “We have no business in this war in the first place”, replies a Slovak NATO officer. Trade negotiators in the Charlemagne building exhale as a tariff storm subsides. Trump’s July 2025 threat of 30% tariffs on €2.3 trillion in EU exports, targeting German cars and French wines, was slashed to 15% in a 27 July deal with Ursula von der Leyen in Scotland. The EU pledged $750 billion in U.S. energy purchases and $600 billion in investments, sparing exporters. Yet, Valdis Dombrovskis’ €500 million SME subsidy plan stalls in Council disputes, with only 15% disbursed by August. For yet another summer, EU bigwigs roam the Mediterranean in yachts, or hop from one exclusive hotel to another on helicopters, while Europe faces a full-scale invasion — and the Commission’s migration policy is a shameful betrayal. The EU–Tunisia deal cut Italian arrivals by 20% in 2024, but hundreds of thousands keep landing in Greece, part of 1.2 million illegals flooding the EU. Member states bicker, asylum rules collapse, NGOs party on. This isn’t migration. It is cultural and demographic substitution, erasing Europe’s heritage. National conservative populists soar, while Brussels liberals clutch their pearls, complicit in a civilisational surrender. In the European Parliament’s corridors, tech lobbyists whisper of digital overreach. The Digital Markets Act, lauded for taming Big Tech, inspires global copycats — India’s 2025 tech law mirrors it — but its heavy hand chokes start-ups. Fines of €7 billion hit Google and Amazon in 2024, yet innovation lags. Europe’s tech sector grew only 3% against the U.S.’s 8%. A Parliament insider hisses, “bureaucracy suffocates us.” The EU’s digital ambitions, like its start-ups, struggle to breathe. Most damning, the Commission’s tax plans — vital for €650 billion in COVID loans and ReArm Europe — are on the brink of collapse. The Tobacco Excise Directive, eyeing €15 billion through cigarette tax hikes and vape levies that reach 139%, is sure to fuel a black market. Europol reports €13 billion lost yearly to illicit trade, with smugglers thriving in Balkan borderlands. A Romanian customs officer shrugs, “Tax more, smuggle more.” Smokers feel that the EU is waging war on their liberties. Still, the Union needs to collect money. The Corporate Resource for Europe (CORE), a levy on firms with €50 million-plus turnover, faces vetoes. Germany and the Netherlands, net contributors wary of 1.2% GDP growth, do not want to enrage corporate giants. JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warned in 2024: Europe’s competitiveness lags 5% behind the U.S. Without TED and CORE, the EU’s budget — €185 billion in 2025 — and its defence plans are a mirage. Brussels’ autumn air grows heavy with scepticism. The Commission’s lofty priorities — defence, trade, climate, migration, tech, and taxes — fuel over-optimistic communiqués and big-mouthed press conferences. But waiters at Place Flagey tally fewer euros as citizens feel the pinch. Europe’s global power shrinks, faced with Trump’s tariffs and Putin’s tanks. The Berlaymont’s lights burn late, but vision without delivery is a recipe for disaster. Bulgaria, new to the euro, watches nervously. Brussels must act, or this autumn’s stumbles will herald a winter of decline....

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