Andy Burnham’s strong focus on social media could prove costly if he does not also build and maintain relationships with legacy media organisations, according to former Downing Street communications chief Andy Coulson.

Speaking to inComms, Coulson described the prime minister’s “social media blitz” as “pretty savvy”, saying: “Andy has taken a very particular – and so far effective – approach to his comms.”

He said Burnham is a “good communicator and clearly loves the process, which as anyone in the business of reputation will know, is half the battle”.

However, Coulson issued a warning: “If I were back in the old job I’d be anxious. Because this period of positive coverage – whatever the data says – is unsustainable.”

Earlier this month, he wrote on LinkedIn: “When the inevitable s*** sandwich lands on the PM’s desk – maybe in a week, maybe on a wet Wednesday in October – his current strategy will be vulnerable.”

Coulson left his position as David Cameron’s director of communications in 2011, following concerns about his involvement in the phone hacking scandal during his time as editor of News of the World. In 2014, he was sentenced to 18 months in prison after being found guilty of conspiracy to hack phones.

Trap doors all around

The former Downing Street communications chief believes “there are hard truths coming” for Burnham.

“In the end, he will be judged on the economy – and whichever way he jumps, there are trapdoors waiting,” he told inComms. “We just don’t like unelected PMs in Britain… and that’s a problem that charm can’t solve,” Coulson added.

He continued: “There will be a sticky, challenging crisis that’s impossible to plan for because there always is. Maybe it’ll be related to the prison release farrago, maybe it’ll be economic or maybe it’ll be entirely self-inflicted. But it’s coming and when it does, TikTok ain’t going to help you.”

Coulson also commented: “In fact popping up there will make you look out of touch and just a touch self-obsessed.”

He argued that Burnham’s communications team should “start prepping now for the coming weather change. Because it’s coming. And it will be traditional media that you’ll have to turn to help get you through, so make sure you are showing them a bit of love and respect”.

Lee Cain, who served as director of communications at No. 10 under Boris Johnson, has similarly questioned Burnham’s communications strategy.

“There’s some really good content and it’s interesting content, but what’s the moral story they’re trying to say?” he said.

He also remarked: “It’s all very tactical. I’m not seeing a huge amount of long-term strategic communications.”

Social media as the main news channel

Cain does not consider Burnham’s “social first approach” to be “revelationary”. He argued: “The majority of people get their news from social media. That is where people are now through a variety of different channels.”

He added: “It’s inevitable that there is more and more focus on social media just because that’s where the eyeballs are.”

However, while appearing recently on The Independent’s ‘In the Room’ podcast, Cain raised a wider concern about the political challenge facing Burnham.

“People are feeling poorer. They’re incredibly unhappy. How do you tell a story about making this country better off and making everybody better off? And I think that’s the big circle to square, which is tough.”

Simon Baugh, former chief executive of the Government Communication Service (GCS), also questioned whether Burnham’s recent social media success can yet be viewed as a reliable indicator.

In a blog published last week, he wrote: “Burnham has had a good few weeks, gaining followers rapidly and producing several widely viewed videos. However, I would be wary of drawing firm conclusions from a few weeks of content.”

He added: “Back in the summer of 2024, there were breathless articles about how Keir Starmer’s Labour Party had won the social media war in the UK’s “first TikTok election”. And we all know how that ended.”

Engagement is not the whole story

The former government communications chief said that high levels of engagement do not necessarily mean that social media content has achieved its intended purpose.

While an individual post can reach a very large audience, he said that “engagement rates tell you little about whether it had the desired impact”.

He pointed to a recent social media video featuring the prime minister and the chancellor of the exchequer rating pub snacks. The content would inevitably attract both supporters and critics.

“And here’s the thing: both reactions drive engagement, but they represent very different outcomes,” he said. “An angry response can produce excellent engagement, but a poor result.”

According to Baugh, Burnham’s approach is currently effective because it reflects the public image he has already established.

“Football, pubs, and informality don’t feel like they have been newly attached to him by a content team trying too hard.”

However, Baugh cautioned that it remains unclear how the same communications style would perform under more difficult circumstances.

“We do not yet know how Andy Burnham’s style will translate in a crisis, or whether it will allow him to persuade a cynical public of the need for difficult decisions”.