Florida is Still the Key to the US Election

Trey Barnes | Issue 3 | Magazine, Washington

From the Archive

Donald Trump Joe Biden Florida US Presidential Election

Forgetting his opponent's name is but a detail for Biden and his campaign, it's all about Florida, says Trey Barnes

With the US election in its final days, Trey Barnes explains why Joe Biden’s inability to remember who he’s running against isn’t going to change the result. It’s still all about Florida. And this Presidential race is still closer than you might think.

The crucial thing about the 2020 US election is that despite the polling, the gaffes, the family mud-slinging, the polar opposite approaches to handling Covid and masks, and the endless polling numbers (with Biden appearing to have a double-digit lead) being churned and analysed, only one thing still really matters on Nov 3^rd.

Namely, that 270 is still the magic number in the race for the White House. Indeed, if you want to truly understand the complexities of how to win a US election, you are better off hiring a mathematician rather than a pollster. Because becoming US President is a math game.

As Hillary Clinton found out most recently in 2016, becoming US President is not about popularity. Mrs. Clinton defeated Mr. Trump 48.2% to 46.1% (Source: CNN). Yet he won the presidency. How can that be? The American Electoral College is the answer.

Every US state is assigned a certain number of electoral votes based on population. This is all set out in the US Constitution. Why so many American politicians seem to miss this essential, simple, math point is beyond the scope of this article. It goes without saying that many tears …

Subscribe to The Mace

Join the member community shaping British politics and stay ahead of what's really happening in the world of politics and public affairs, with expert analysis, breaking news, and insider insights from Westminster and Brussels. The Mace is the leading news source and resource for the government affairs industry, offering required reading and lobby intelligence for professionals.

To see what you are missing out on by not subscribing to The Mace, click here to download our full membership info-pack. This includes having no paywall on op-ed content or profiles/interviews, allowing professional profiles to be read with maximum impact and visibility by government, special advisers, MPs, peers, civil servants, and policy and political decision-makers.