A nation divided

John Curtice | Issue 6 | Comment, Magazine

From the Archive

LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM - MAY 22: A policeman and an official stand outside a polling station at Christ Church Church of England Primary School in Brick Lane on May 22, 2014 in London, England. Millions of voters are going to the polls today in local and European elections.  (Photo by Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images)
LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM - MAY 22: A policeman and an official stand outside a polling station at Christ Church Church of England Primary School in Brick Lane on May 22, 2014 in London, England. Millions of voters are going to the polls today in local and European elections. (Photo by Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images)

Complex circumstances mean the 2022 local elections are unlikely to deliver the definitive coup de grace some are hoping for

Just a few short weeks ago it was being suggested that the outcome of the local elections on 5 May could determine Boris Johnson’s political fate – assuming he made it that far. Tory MPs concerned about the potential electoral damage caused by the partygate allegations looked as though they might move against the prime minister if their party was to suffer serious electoral losses at the ballot box. After all, bad local election results have previously helped dislodge a prime minister. A bad Labour performance in 2006 resulted in growing pressure on Tony Blair to stand down, which he eventually did twelve months later. More recently, serious Conservative losses in 2019 added to the calls for Theresa May to resign in the wake of her inability to secure Commons’ support for her Brexit deal, a step which she duly took three weeks later after an even worse performance in subsequent European elections.  Following the Ukraine crisis, the storm surrounding the prime minister has abated – for ...

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