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EDITOR'S PICK
Good morning from William Cash, the Mace Editor-in-chief
Makerfield mayhem
We are not so much in the Keir Starmer end game now as the “exit, stage left” moment of Downing Street departure. I visited Makerfield at the weekend, assessing the mood among voters along the scruffy high street of Ashfield-in-Makerfield, with its pawnbroker, kebab shops and tattoo parlours; in the giant retail park dominated by a huge Sainsbury’s on the road to Wigan; and the leafy pubs and car parks around Haydock Park’s smart race course.
It will come as little surprise to those who know Rupert Lowe that he set up Restore’s by-election army camp – some 1,200 canvassing troops from across the UK showed up in the sunshine on Saturday morning, and helpers even flew in from Hong Kong, Poland and Melbourne (the latter all-week) – in a series of tents in the Owners & Trainers car park. Standing by the tents, like a general’s chariot, was a new gun metal Land Rover Defender in full Restore livery with a navy flag on the back saying “Rupert Lowe for Prime Minister.”
When I asked a small band of Restore activists in The Bay Mare pub, near Haydock race course, at lunch how they were polling across the by-election seat, the chef de band, a builder volunteer, claimed “15 to 20 per cent”, adding: “I converted eight Restore members this morning and got them to take down their boards”. Wearing a Union Jack waistcoat, he could have been a pilot talking of Spitfire kills in 1940.
Other Restore canvassers claimed similar numbers, with one woman with red spiked hair – a former Labour activist - saying “15 per cent is in the bank.” Polling companies, meanwhile, have put Restore between 5-10%. Having spent time around Makerfield, talking to all camps, my prediction is that Restore will do better than the media expect, just as Reform used to consistently out-perform the media polls. Canvassers like to be optimistic, and loyal, especially after Lowe hosted a boozy party on Saturday night for volunteers at the Bay Mare, followed by an after-party at a local karaoke club.
The reasons for the fall-off since the by-election was first announced should not bother Farage too much, although it will focus his mind on the importance of “candidate quality.” Reform have not been hugely helped by the “Plucky Plumber” candidate Robert Kenyon, whose old social media posts and underwhelming performance on BBC’s Question Time gave the impression, according to some, that he didn’t care enough about becoming a Reform MP. Others thought he was out of his depth or the wrong candidate.
Handy Andy
What’s seems apparent from our weekend Mace poll, combined with poll evidence seen, is that Andy Burnham – who likes to drink with locals at the Queen Anne pub in his village of Golborne, just outside the constituency – will most likely be back in parliament by Friday morning. His victory speech will be an unvarnished Labour leadership challenge. Labour sources say as many as 100 Labour MPs are planning to “come out” for Burnham on Friday morning demanding that Starmer sets out a timetable for his departure from Downing Street.
More senior cabinet resignations are expected on Friday, following defence secretary John Healey and Armed Forces minister Al Carns last week, plunging the government again into turmoil. With the next round of resignations rumoured to include Ed Miliband and, quite possibly, Rachel Reeves, this would make Starmer’s position unviable.
That’s because Starmer lost the support of most of his parliamentary party months ago. It’s no secret that Starmer has never had good relations with most MPs in his parliamentary party, ignoring them mostly. The Times said his position looked “fatal” after he lost his defence secretary.
With Starmer now increasingly looking like a “dead PM walking”, my prediction for the week is that Labour history might repeat itself with another surprise resignation. A sitting Labour prime minister has never been ousted before but there have been resignations before.
Sack race
Yes, we have been repeatedly told that Starmer is going to fight any leadership challenge and that he’s not going to quit Downing Street. But look what happened in March 1976 when Harold Wilson unexpectedly resigned as prime minister, catching MPs and his cabinet completely off-guard.
When Wilson shocked the country by standing down, only a few close colleagues knew he would do it. After winning two elections in 1974 (with a hung parliament), Wilson’s allies and supporters assumed he would seek to serve a full time in office as PM. But he was quickly succeeded by James Callaghan and remained an MP until 1983 when he was elevated to the Lords as a peer.
As vultures circle Downing Street, Starmer must realise that resigning is going to be better for the Labour Party than a humiliating forced exit. Like a condemned man on death row, he now has to face his executioners. The prime minister should brave up and face his fate with a dignified resignation. He has run out of places to hide from the fact that he no longer has the support of even his allies.
Armed combat
“You have been unable, and the Treasury has been unwilling, to commit the resources that the nation needs to defend the country at this time of rising threats.”
These were the damning words of John Healey when he resigned as defence secretary, along with Armed Forces minister Al Carns, on Thursday. After delays and excuses, the truth emerged that Keir Starmer only wants to commit to defence spending going up from 2.6% of GDP to just 2.68% by 2030, which leaves a multi-billion funding gap.
This was seized upon by James Cartlidge, the Conservatives’ defence spokesman – Reform have yet to appoint a dedicated defence spokesperson – who confirmed that the next Conservative party would “prioritise investment in defence” by reallocating £11 billion of investment currently
earmarked for “Miliband's vanity net zero projects” through a Sovereign Defence Fund.
The defence department drama in Westminster has been lethal for Starmer as it implies he doesn’t even want to make Britain‘s security “safe” – just weeks before the crucial Nato Summit in Ankara on 7-8 July.
In politics, timing can be everything. Healey’s resignation has been a welcome opportunity for the Tories to hit a home run on the defence front. Meanwhile, Labour is unravelling with no effective ringmaster and plenty of competing acts for the top job.
Turkey roasted
As the Turkey summit looms, Starmer’s political credibility looks to have been fatally shot. The argument previously put forward by party loyalists – especially at the start of the Iran conflict – was that for all his domestic challenges and in-party fighting, at least Starmer was respected on the world stage and a safe pair of hands to represent British interests abroad.
But as he prepares to meet other Nato leaders, that he is only prepared to commit the UK to 2.68% defence spending targets at a time of deep geopolitical uncertainty is not a good statesman look.
The Tories may have zero chance of making an impact on the Makerfield by-election on 18 June but they have wasted no time on seizing on Starner’s weakness in defence. Reform, meanwhile, had to rely on Richard Tice, deputy leader, to step up as defence spokesman (in addition to business, housing and energy), saying that “John Healey has exposed the prime minister’s true priorities” by admitting that neither the PM or Rachel Reeves “is willing to commit the resources needed to properly defend our country”. Instead, said Tice, Starmer has revealed a government that is “prioritising Benefit Street over the security of the British public”. Both the Tories and Reform have said that the Defence Investment Plan could be funded by scrapping net zero.
Fatal fallout
For an already badly wounded prime minister, whose political capital has been heavily invested in astute handling of foreign affairs, the fallout from the defence funding row can only help precipitate Starmer’s fall.
The Strategic Defence Review included 62 proposals for essential equipment, costing £28 billion. Our advice to Dan Jarvis, the new defence secretary, is that he should not sign off on the delayed spending investment plan, unless he is given the £18 billion in defence equipment that this country needs.
Mace is the place
The Mace summer lunch for 46 guests at the UnHerd Club in Westminster on 10 June brought together a wonderfully eclectic and colourful cross-section of the Westminster and lobby worlds.
Cross-party guests included a number of Her Majesty’s Opposition Shadow Cabinet members: Andrew Griffith MP, Shadow Business Secretary; Helen Whatley MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions; Mark Garnier MP, Shadow Economic Secretary to the Treasury; Mark Francois MP, Shadow Minister for Defence; Julia Lopez MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology; Sir Bernard Jenkin, Mace columnist; Baroness Laing DBE, former Deputy Speaker of the House of Commons; General Sir Adrian Bradshaw, KCB, former Deputy Supreme Commander Europe; former Tory minister turned tech defence entrepreneur Brooks Newmark; former MPs Sir Bill Cash and Rupert Allason (aka spy writer Nigel West), and Lord (George) Magan and Neil Osborn, former MD of Euromoney.
From the public affairs, corporate intelligence and agency sphere, guests included Isaac Levido, CEO and founding partner of Fleetwood Strategy, Scott Dodsworth, Managing Director of GK Strategy, Oliver Foster, CEO of Pagefield, and John Rowland, CEO of H/Advisors.
From the business and finance world, guests included Paul Staples, Managing Partner, Smith Square Partners and Bogdan Gubsky, former Ukrainian MP and member of The Mace Advisory Board. From the diplomatic world, representatives from the Brazilian and Hungarian embassies. Reform UK was represented by Victoria Chapman, Deputy Treasurer.
Heavy-hitting philanthropist and corporate adviser Charlotte Mulford was among the later guests to leave after the Old Queen Street chocolate cake had been served – around 3.30pm – along with David Poole, formerly head of private clients at Citi Private Bank.
Perfect spot
We had thought about having The Mace’s summer lunch in the Houses of Parliament but I realised that it was a bad idea after our fifth anniversary party there, when people had to queue for an hour on a stormy December night and we lost 50% of guests before the event even began because of a “go-slow” by parliament security.
I can report that the UnHerd Club private dining room – above the Old Queen Street Café – was a much better experience. The table settings had name cards with beautiful calligraphy on both sides. The lunch started with summer greens and mint labneh and guests enjoyed chicken supreme with braised peas, wild mushrooms and new potatoes. It’s an improvement on the way The Mace carries out its VIP politico entertaining. At our original launch party, back in January 2020, in the Jubilee Room of the Houses of Parliament, our budget stretched to Aldi champagne and M&S canapes, smuggled through House of Commons security in large suitcases.
The lunch exemplified what The Mace is all about with guests representing the mercurial intersection of business and politics. We’re grateful for our special guests Jann Martin Schwarz, Head of Thought Leadership at LinkedIn, who flew in from NYC to be with us, and Mimi Turner, LinkedIn’s Head of Innovation, who used to be the policy head for the Lib Dems.
Conversation ranged from how to win at politics in the age of AI to how AI is changing the world of corporate and political reputation.
Make space for Mace
Copies of the most recent issue were on the tables, and attention was drawn to The Mace profile and interview with Shadow Business and Trade Secretary Andrew Griffith. Asked what keeps him up at night, he said: “The direction of the government” and that was before Andy Burnham became the odds-on favourite to be the next prime minister after Thursday’s by-election.
His recent bedside reading has been How Countries Go Broke by famed hedge-funder author Ray Dalio. Not pretty reading, he assures us.
Another profile that caught the attention of The Mace’s lunch guests was The Mace Questionnaire of the Rt Hon Darren Jones MP, Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, who admitted that his favourite song is D:Ream’s “Things Can Only Get Better”. That's a sentiment many in Labour are hoping will change with a new leader.
William.cash@macemagazine.com
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